The worst-case Brexit scenario for aviation of widespread grounding of flights has been avoided thanks to contingency plans in both London and Brussels.
But everything will not stay the same after the U.K. leaves — especially if the Brexit deal agreed between the U.K. and EU is not signed off on by MPs in Westminster.
Here’s what could happen to U.K.-EU flights after Brexit day.
Can I book a flight between the EU and the U.K. after March 30, 2019?
Yes. (Probably.)
The best case scenario for travelers is if the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by the EU and U.K. is approved in the British parliament on January 14. If that happens, then air services between the EU and the U.K. will remain the same at least until the end of 2020 (and possibly longer), by which time negotiators hope to have a permanent air transport agreement in place.
But the turmoil in the British parliament of late shows the Brexit agreement may not be approved, putting the U.K. on course to crash out of the EU without a deal. The European Commission proposed in December a set of no-deal contingency plans, which if approved by the EU27 will still allow direct flights between the EU and the U.K. for a period of 12 months after March 30. So yes, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit, you will — pending EU27 and European Parliament approval of the Commission’s no-deal plans — be able to fly from the EU to the U.K. and the other way round.
So will air transport remain the same?
No.
The Commission is keen to point out that this is a “bare-bones” agreement, and not only is it less than what the U.K. already has, it is also temporary. British airlines will lose the right to operate intra-EU flights. They will also lose the right to operate flights from the U.K. to the EU and then on to another destination — London-Madrid-Buenos Aires, say.
While airlines can continue operating on the routes they already have, they cannot open new routes, so if you were looking forward to that direct flight from Glasgow to Bucharest, airlines will not be able to add it after March 30. Operators also cannot add more flights to existing routes, so if there are two daily flights to Riga from London Gatwick, a third cannot be added.
That’s bad for connectivity and growth. “This restriction of air connectivity development from a no-deal scenario is a detail that matters. If also applied by the U.K. vis-à-vis EU27 airlines, it would ultimately result in the loss of 140,000 new flights and nearly 20 million passengers on the U.K.-EU27 market,” said Olivier Jankovec, director general of ACI Europe .
Do passengers from the U.S. or elsewhere have to worry about Brexit?
Yes.
About half of all passengers traveling to the U.K. from the U.S. go on to other EU countries, meaning that American passengers could face major disruptions and American carriers could lose a lot of business through codeshare agreements. For example, American Airlines and British Airways are part of the Oneworld alliance. American counts on BA’s routes in Europe to make sure its passengers can go on to their destinations from Heathrow. The Commission’s no-deal plans do not mention how codeshares might continue operating after March 30, which spells trouble for non-Europeans coming in from other countries hoping to move between the EU and the U.K.
Will British passengers need visas to go to the EU and vice-versa?
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No.
The Commission has decided to grant U.K. citizens visa-free status, which will allow Britons to stay in the EU for up to 90 days over a 180-day period. That means that British citizens can go on holiday or see friends and family on the Continent, but may need to apply for visas if intending to stay longer than three months. However, U.K. citizens will have to pay a €7 fee under the EU’s new European Travel Information and Authorization System, which will screen non-EU travelers who do not require visas before entry.
European citizens may also not need visas to go to the U.K. for short periods, but the British government has proposed a new immigration plan that would put them in the same category as the rest of the world when it comes to applying for jobs or immigration. The plan will likely not come into force until 2025 at the earliest.