Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement to the nation in Downing Street | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

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Brexit Files Insight

Theresa May throws Brussels a curveball

Pushing the next UK election to 2022 would give May more room for maneuver in talks with the EU.

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Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap U.K. election in June robs the EU of its clearest and most important advantage in the fast-approaching Brexit negotiations: time.

While Brexit was a body blow to Brussels, one thing that has worked in the EU’s favor virtually from the moment the results of last year’s referendum became clear is the timetable: London was under pressure to formally trigger Article 50, a process that ultimately took nine months; and the U.K. faces a cliff edge if a withdrawal agreement can’t be concluded within a two-year deadline.

On top of that, May — who was appointed prime minister by her fellow Conservatives after David Cameron’s resignation — had been facing the prospect of a national election in May 2020, which would have been just 15 months after the U.K.’s scheduled withdrawal from the EU, a point at which the pain of Brexit is likely to be felt far more acutely than any gain.

An early U.K. election would reconfigure the calendar and eliminate much of the Brussels edge. A big victory for the Tories, which seems likely, would allow May to enter the negotiations flexing her muscles with a real political mandate.

Holding a June vote would push the next U.K. election to 2022, giving May breathing room for a transition period to ease Britain out of the EU and vastly diminishing the risk of a cliff-edge scenario. It would also grant her government crucial time to negotiate a trade deal with the bloc — all before voters get another chance to express their views at the ballot box.

Brussels, which seemed content to twiddle its thumbs and keep Britain paying into the EU budget for as long as possible, is now the side facing greater political uncertainty. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk both end their terms in 2019, meaning the late stages of the Brexit negotiations could be complicated by the battles over who will succeed them. At that point, May and her Tories would be less than halfway through their five-year term.

The European Commission’s chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas tried Tuesday to play down May’s announcement, saying: “There are elections everywhere; it’s natural … Elections are good. We are in favor — generally.”

“Generally” may be an overstatement.

From the Brexit referendum last June to an Italian referendum in December that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, to a much-criticized referendum over the weekend in Turkey, the EU has often found elections over the past 12 months to be rather nettlesome. It already faces the two-round election in France this spring and federal elections in Germany in September.

If the U.K. holds a general election in June, Brussels can only lose.

This insight is from POLITICO’s Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Read today’s edition or subscribe here.

Authors:
David M. Herszenhorn